I somehow stumbled on this page in a search for education data:
http://mcds.dese.mo.gov/quickfacts/Pages/District-and-School-Information.aspx. One click led to another and now I have Missouri Enrollment education data from 1991 - 2015 in a database for consumption. This is more of a
CanvasJS chart practice exercise than an actual deep dive into MO Education enrollment trends. However quickly you can see a few interesting things from a surface level view of the data.
Kansas City 33
The Kansas City School district lost accreditation September 20, 2011 effective January 2012. However from the chart below you can see a definite downward trend in enrollment prior to 2011. In November 2007 KC transferred seven schools to the Independence school district. You can see a sizable dip between the 2008 and 2009 school year.
Here are the numbers from Kansas City for 2007 - 2010 showing the large drop in enrollment pretty much across the board.
2008 Recession Theory
Several district show a dip in Kindergarten enrollment between the 2014 and 2015 school year. My first theory is the 2008-2009 recession. People slowed down on family expansion during that year which would start to show up in Kindergarten enrollment numbers. Here is an example from the Liberty School District. It shows a dip starting in 2011 and bottoming out in 2015. The next few years trend will be interesting to see in Liberty as the economy tries to rebound, more houses are being built, and people continue expanding their family.
Largest Jumps
Using some cool SQL Server Windowing Functions I was able to quickly sort out the districts that had the largest enrollment drops and gains in a single year. I filtered out only those schools with at least 100 students in the grade the previous year. Several rural schools have dramatic year to year increases and decreases. The 100 student filter eliminated some of the noise.
Top 20 K Decreases
| district_name | PrevYear | CurrentYear | year | DiffStudents | PctChange |
|---|
| ETHEL HEDGEMAN LYLE ACADEMY | 104 | 0 | 2013 | -104 | -100.00% |
| MEADOW HEIGHTS R-II | 108 | 36 | 1994 | -72 | -66.67% |
| AFFTON 101 | 369 | 173 | 1995 | -196 | -53.12% |
| CHILLICOTHE R-II | 294 | 148 | 1992 | -146 | -49.66% |
| HICKMAN MILLS C-1 | 1112 | 583 | 1993 | -529 | -47.57% |
| BRENTWOOD | 107 | 57 | 1994 | -50 | -46.73% |
| RITENOUR | 1027 | 565 | 1992 | -462 | -44.99% |
| CENTER 58 | 310 | 175 | 1997 | -135 | -43.55% |
| ROCKWOOD R-VI | 2179 | 1251 | 1993 | -928 | -42.59% |
| STRAFFORD R-VI | 113 | 65 | 2006 | -48 | -42.48% |
| FORSYTH R-III | 100 | 59 | 1992 | -41 | -41.00% |
| NORMANDY | 776 | 458 | 1993 | -318 | -40.98% |
| SENECA R-VII | 122 | 74 | 2015 | -48 | -39.34% |
| ETHEL HEDGEMAN LYLE ACADEMY | 112 | 68 | 2009 | -44 | -39.29% |
| ARCADIA VALLEY R-II | 113 | 69 | 2000 | -44 | -38.94% |
| SPECL. SCH. DST. ST. LOUIS CO. | 114 | 72 | 2009 | -42 | -36.84% |
| ST. CHARLES CO. R-V | 131 | 83 | 1994 | -48 | -36.64% |
| PATTONVILLE R-III | 740 | 470 | 1993 | -270 | -36.49% |
| WEBSTER GROVES | 546 | 348 | 1993 | -198 | -36.26% |
| LICKING R-VIII | 100 | 64 | 2014 | -36 | -36.00% |
Top 20 K Increases
| district_name | PrevYear | CurrentYear | year | DiffStudents | PctChange |
|---|
| PATTONVILLE R-III | 246 | 740 | 1992 | 494 | 200.81% |
| HICKMAN MILLS C-1 | 563 | 1112 | 1992 | 549 | 97.51% |
| CENTER 58 | 162 | 310 | 1996 | 148 | 91.36% |
| KIRKWOOD R-VII | 289 | 550 | 1994 | 261 | 90.31% |
| ROCKWOOD R-VI | 1152 | 2179 | 1992 | 1027 | 89.15% |
| WARRENSBURG R-VI | 115 | 211 | 1992 | 96 | 83.48% |
| WINDSOR C-1 | 120 | 204 | 1992 | 84 | 70.00% |
| ST LOUIS LANG IMMERSION SCHOOL | 108 | 183 | 2011 | 75 | 69.44% |
| UNIVERSITY CITY | 211 | 341 | 1992 | 130 | 61.61% |
| MAPLEWOOD-RICHMOND HEIGHTS | 105 | 165 | 1992 | 60 | 57.14% |
| AFFTON 101 | 246 | 369 | 1994 | 123 | 50.00% |
| WEBSTER GROVES | 373 | 546 | 1992 | 173 | 46.38% |
| MONETT R-I | 136 | 196 | 2003 | 60 | 44.12% |
| JENNINGS | 194 | 279 | 1996 | 85 | 43.81% |
| FREDERICKTOWN R-I | 106 | 149 | 1995 | 43 | 40.57% |
| MEXICO 59 | 148 | 208 | 2007 | 60 | 40.54% |
| ST. JAMES R-I | 101 | 138 | 2000 | 37 | 36.63% |
| CARUTHERSVILLE 18 | 102 | 139 | 2006 | 37 | 36.27% |
| AURORA R-VIII | 127 | 173 | 2010 | 46 | 36.22% |
| KENNETT 39 | 136 | 185 | 1994 | 49 | 36.03% |
K Findings
- Looks like the ETHEL HEDGEMAN Acamedy has shutdown.
- I was hoping to see more 2015/2014 year decreases to back up my 2008 recession theory.
- I sent Pattonville R-III a tweet to verify the jump in Enrollment in 1992 is legit. I also asked them what happened to cause a 200% enrollment increase followed by a 36% decrease the following year.
Top 20 1st Decreases
| district_name | PrevYear | CurrentYear | year | DiffStudents | PctChange |
|---|
| ETHEL HEDGEMAN LYLE ACADEMY | 115 | 56 | 2009 | -59 | -51.30% |
| ST. CHARLES CO. R-V | 142 | 80 | 1994 | -62 | -43.66% |
| BROOKFIELD R-III | 101 | 57 | 2015 | -44 | -43.56% |
| MALDEN R-I | 108 | 71 | 2001 | -37 | -34.26% |
| MAPLEWOOD-RICHMOND HEIGHTS | 124 | 82 | 1999 | -42 | -33.87% |
| SPECL. SCH. DST. ST. LOUIS CO. | 107 | 71 | 2015 | -36 | -33.64% |
| WARSAW R-IX | 129 | 86 | 2004 | -43 | -33.33% |
| ARCADIA VALLEY R-II | 107 | 72 | 2001 | -35 | -32.71% |
| MOUNTAIN GROVE R-III | 163 | 110 | 2000 | -53 | -32.52% |
| CARUTHERSVILLE 18 | 161 | 110 | 2006 | -51 | -31.68% |
| MALDEN R-I | 127 | 87 | 1994 | -40 | -31.50% |
| BAYLESS | 118 | 81 | 1997 | -37 | -31.36% |
| DESOTO 73 | 245 | 170 | 2001 | -75 | -30.61% |
| WINFIELD R-IV | 138 | 97 | 1994 | -41 | -29.71% |
| STRAFFORD R-VI | 101 | 71 | 2007 | -30 | -29.70% |
| CAMERON R-I | 135 | 95 | 1996 | -40 | -29.63% |
| CHARLESTON R-I | 115 | 81 | 2003 | -34 | -29.57% |
| SPECL. SCH. DST. ST. LOUIS CO. | 127 | 90 | 2009 | -37 | -29.13% |
| SULLIVAN C-2 | 179 | 127 | 2000 | -52 | -29.05% |
| ARCADIA VALLEY R-II | 101 | 72 | 1995 | -29 | -28.71% |
Top 20 1st Grade Increases
| district_name | PrevYear | CurrentYear | year | DiffStudents | PctChange |
|---|
| ST LOUIS LANG IMMERSION SCHOOL | 113 | 174 | 2012 | 61 | 53.98% |
| LOGAN-ROGERSVILLE R-VIII | 116 | 174 | 2009 | 58 | 50.00% |
| INDEPENDENCE 30 | 823 | 1143 | 2009 | 320 | 38.88% |
| ODESSA R-VII | 134 | 184 | 2004 | 50 | 37.31% |
| JENNINGS | 201 | 270 | 2015 | 69 | 34.33% |
| MEXICO 59 | 150 | 201 | 2008 | 51 | 34.00% |
| DUNKLIN R-V | 112 | 149 | 1992 | 37 | 33.04% |
| RICHMOND R-XVI | 112 | 149 | 2004 | 37 | 33.04% |
| ST. CLAIR R-XIII | 132 | 175 | 2005 | 43 | 32.58% |
| MOUNTAIN GROVE R-III | 123 | 163 | 1999 | 40 | 32.52% |
| ST. CLAIR R-XIII | 130 | 172 | 2014 | 42 | 32.31% |
| WILLARD R-II | 230 | 304 | 2004 | 74 | 32.17% |
| WEBB CITY R-VII | 269 | 352 | 2005 | 83 | 30.86% |
| SMITHVILLE R-II | 133 | 174 | 2005 | 41 | 30.83% |
| FREDERICKTOWN R-I | 124 | 162 | 2014 | 38 | 30.65% |
| DESOTO 73 | 170 | 222 | 2002 | 52 | 30.59% |
| HANCOCK PLACE | 103 | 134 | 2015 | 31 | 30.10% |
| SMITHVILLE R-II | 123 | 160 | 2003 | 37 | 30.08% |
| KNOB NOSTER R-VIII | 126 | 163 | 2009 | 37 | 29.37% |
| PERRY CO. 32 | 122 | 157 | 1996 | 35 | 28.69% |
First Grade Findings
- DESOTO 73 shows up in both largest increase and largest decrease lists. 2001 saw a 30.61% decrease in 2001 followed by a 30.59% increase in 2002. Desoto is a kinda small (population 6400 during 2010 census). I searched for a few minutes about what happened in Desoto MO in 2001 with 0 results.
- ST. LOUIS LANGUAGE IMMERSION school had a big boost. This is a new charter school in the St. Louis area. Given the state of large metro schools in KC and St. Louis, no surprises here people wanting to try out alternatives.
- INDEPENDENCE 30 shows up on the biggest increase list in 2009. This was after the previously mentioned building acquisition from the KC school district.
So I only showed the full results for K and 1st Grade cause I started getting bored with that. I did however want to show the SQL Server Windowing functions I used to get the data. Those are pretty cool.
One last cool thing
Anyway good times. This was just one of the plethora of data sets on the MO DOE web site. Too much data, too little time.
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