Thursday, February 19, 2015

Missouri School Enrollment Numbers

I somehow stumbled on this page in a search for education data: One click led to another and now I have Missouri Enrollment education data from 1991 - 2015 in a database for consumption. This is more of a CanvasJS chart practice exercise than an actual deep dive into MO Education enrollment trends. However quickly you can see a few interesting things from a surface level view of the data.

Kansas City 33

The Kansas City School district lost accreditation September 20, 2011 effective January 2012. However from the chart below you can see a definite downward trend in enrollment prior to 2011. In November 2007 KC transferred seven schools to the Independence school district. You can see a sizable dip between the 2008 and 2009 school year.

Here are the numbers from Kansas City for 2007 - 2010 showing the large drop in enrollment pretty much across the board.

2008 Recession Theory

Several district show a dip in Kindergarten enrollment between the 2014 and 2015 school year. My first theory is the 2008-2009 recession. People slowed down on family expansion during that year which would start to show up in Kindergarten enrollment numbers. Here is an example from the Liberty School District. It shows a dip starting in 2011 and bottoming out in 2015. The next few years trend will be interesting to see in Liberty as the economy tries to rebound, more houses are being built, and people continue expanding their family.

Largest Jumps

Using some cool SQL Server Windowing Functions I was able to quickly sort out the districts that had the largest enrollment drops and gains in a single year. I filtered out only those schools with at least 100 students in the grade the previous year. Several rural schools have dramatic year to year increases and decreases. The 100 student filter eliminated some of the noise.

Top 20 K Decreases
MEADOW HEIGHTS R-II108361994-72-66.67%
AFFTON 1013691731995-196-53.12%
CHILLICOTHE R-II2941481992-146-49.66%
HICKMAN MILLS C-111125831993-529-47.57%
CENTER 583101751997-135-43.55%
ROCKWOOD R-VI217912511993-928-42.59%
STRAFFORD R-VI113652006-48-42.48%
FORSYTH R-III100591992-41-41.00%
SENECA R-VII122742015-48-39.34%
ARCADIA VALLEY R-II113692000-44-38.94%
SPECL. SCH. DST. ST. LOUIS CO.114722009-42-36.84%
ST. CHARLES CO. R-V131831994-48-36.64%
PATTONVILLE R-III7404701993-270-36.49%
WEBSTER GROVES5463481993-198-36.26%
LICKING R-VIII100642014-36-36.00%

Top 20 K Increases
PATTONVILLE R-III2467401992494200.81%
HICKMAN MILLS C-15631112199254997.51%
CENTER 58162310199614891.36%
KIRKWOOD R-VII289550199426190.31%
ROCKWOOD R-VI115221791992102789.15%
WARRENSBURG R-VI11521119929683.48%
WINDSOR C-112020419928470.00%
UNIVERSITY CITY211341199213061.61%
AFFTON 101246369199412350.00%
WEBSTER GROVES373546199217346.38%
MONETT R-I13619620036044.12%
FREDERICKTOWN R-I10614919954340.57%
MEXICO 5914820820076040.54%
ST. JAMES R-I10113820003736.63%
CARUTHERSVILLE 1810213920063736.27%
AURORA R-VIII12717320104636.22%
KENNETT 3913618519944936.03%

K Findings

  • Looks like the ETHEL HEDGEMAN  Acamedy has shutdown.
  • I was hoping to see more 2015/2014 year decreases to back up my 2008 recession theory.
  • I sent Pattonville R-III a tweet to verify the jump in Enrollment in 1992 is legit. I also asked them what happened to cause a 200% enrollment increase followed by a 36% decrease the following year.

Top 20 1st Decreases

ST. CHARLES CO. R-V142801994-62-43.66%
BROOKFIELD R-III101572015-44-43.56%
MALDEN R-I108712001-37-34.26%
SPECL. SCH. DST. ST. LOUIS CO.107712015-36-33.64%
WARSAW R-IX129862004-43-33.33%
ARCADIA VALLEY R-II107722001-35-32.71%
MOUNTAIN GROVE R-III1631102000-53-32.52%
CARUTHERSVILLE 181611102006-51-31.68%
MALDEN R-I127871994-40-31.50%
DESOTO 732451702001-75-30.61%
WINFIELD R-IV138971994-41-29.71%
STRAFFORD R-VI101712007-30-29.70%
CAMERON R-I135951996-40-29.63%
CHARLESTON R-I115812003-34-29.57%
SPECL. SCH. DST. ST. LOUIS CO.127902009-37-29.13%
SULLIVAN C-21791272000-52-29.05%
ARCADIA VALLEY R-II101721995-29-28.71%

Top 20 1st Grade Increases

LOGAN-ROGERSVILLE R-VIII11617420095850.00%
INDEPENDENCE 308231143200932038.88%
ODESSA R-VII13418420045037.31%
MEXICO 5915020120085134.00%
DUNKLIN R-V11214919923733.04%
RICHMOND R-XVI11214920043733.04%
ST. CLAIR R-XIII13217520054332.58%
MOUNTAIN GROVE R-III12316319994032.52%
ST. CLAIR R-XIII13017220144232.31%
WILLARD R-II23030420047432.17%
WEBB CITY R-VII26935220058330.86%
SMITHVILLE R-II13317420054130.83%
FREDERICKTOWN R-I12416220143830.65%
DESOTO 7317022220025230.59%
HANCOCK PLACE10313420153130.10%
SMITHVILLE R-II12316020033730.08%
KNOB NOSTER R-VIII12616320093729.37%
PERRY CO. 3212215719963528.69%

First Grade Findings
  • DESOTO 73 shows up in both largest increase and largest decrease lists. 2001 saw a 30.61% decrease in 2001 followed by a 30.59% increase in 2002. Desoto is a kinda small (population 6400 during 2010 census). I searched for a few minutes about what happened in Desoto MO in 2001 with 0 results. 
  • ST. LOUIS LANGUAGE IMMERSION school had a big boost. This is a new charter school in the St. Louis area. Given the state of large metro schools in KC and St. Louis, no surprises here people wanting to try out alternatives.
  • INDEPENDENCE 30 shows up on the biggest increase list in 2009. This was after the previously  mentioned building acquisition from the KC school district.

So I only showed the full results for K and 1st Grade cause I started getting bored with that. I did however want to show the SQL Server Windowing functions I used to get the data. Those are pretty cool.

One last cool thing

While looking at the 5th grade trends (as mentioned I started getting bored with the year to year) I did notice something in the Clinton district. In 1994 Clinton had a 32% decrease in 5th grade enrollment. I wanted to see if you could see that trend before and after the drop in 5th grade. Using the graph I compared all the grades to 5th grade for Clinton. You can see the previous years drop in enrollment leads to the 5th grade year drop as well as the subsequent years drop in enrollment. It was like a ripple effect, cool to see visually.

K vs 5th

1st vs 5th

2nd vs 5th

3rd vs 5th

4th vs 5th

5th vs 6th

5th vs 7th

5th vs 8th

5th vs 9th

5th vs 10th

5th vs 11th

5th vs 12th

Anyway good times. This was just one of the plethora of data sets on the MO DOE web site. Too much data, too little time.


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